The win probability is primarily used by ESPN in order to show the chances of teams winning when it comes down to the last minute. Some days it’s perfectly accurate and knows which team wins based on the players and record. Other times it becomes a heart rate monitor as the results keep changing up and down, leading no one to predict who wins. And other times, it just pulls a Atlanta Falcons, like with some of these games.
Week 11:
Ohio vs Kent State: Ohio wins 41-0
Well, Kent State, you happen to be one of the teams whose win probability never even came close to getting on your side. Ohio QB Parker Navarro didn’t even have a touchdown, and their RB Anthony Tyus III had only one touchdown. Instead, they gained their scores from field goals, a pass from their WR, and a kickoff and punt return for a TD! You just have to feel bad for the Golden Flashes. May their suffering end one day, even if it will probably never do.
Army vs North Texas: Army wins 14-3
Traditional Army Football consists of scoring low, barely passing, and scrapping out wins when your QB, Bryson Daily, accounts for two rushing touchdowns and only passing 15 yards. No RB is needed here; he’ll just run you over himself, and don’t even expect to get some passing if you ever are a WR here. This was also the first game when they had a deficit for the first time, but only for around six minutes, since a field goal was kicked.
Oklahoma vs Missouri: Missouri wins 30-23
Win Probability? More like a representation of a heart rate monitor. What looked like Missouri’s game to win led to Oklahoma taking the lead, then Missouri gaining it back. BUT, with 1:24 in the 4th, after getting a fumble return for a TD at the 2-minute mark, what seemed for the Sooners to be a desperate win…led to them collapsing in the worst way possible as the Wildcats managed to pull out a last-second touchdown.
Week 12:
Ball State vs Buffalo: Buffalo wins 51-48(OT)
Tuesday Night under the lights. Back and forth between two groups of five school teams. 38 points were scored in the second quarter. An overtime affair. A game-sealing touchdown from QB C.J. Ogbonna. Truly a midweek classic. Ball State had a great lead in the 4th, just for Buffalo to swipe it all away.
Washington State vs New Mexico: New Mexico wins 38-35
Does anyone think about the New Mexico Lobos from time to time? Seemingly getting unrecognized by their successful brother from last year (definitely not this year due to a certain Diego getting the greatest upset this year). But for the Lobos, pulling away was another victory when Washington State was #18 and was looked at to win until the beginning of the 4th quarter.
Kansas vs BYU: Kansas wins 17-13
The 2024 Kansas Jayhawks. Cured by the Pac-12, end up taking down #6 BYU, handing them their first loss of the season. What once looked like them holding some lead and the majority in the 2nd and 3rd quarter, flipped on its head as the Jayhawks had Devin Neal get a run in, and never looked away. Historians will always remember these Jayhawks, not even making a bowl game, so deciding to make the playoff hunt is just that bit more confusing.
