There has been plenty of buzz surrounding which team will finish the season possessing the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but the topic of which player would be selected with that first overall pick is an entirely different conversation. As the college football season nears conclusion, it is time to look at some of the talents that are in line to enter the NFL in the upcoming draft, and who could potentially occupy the top pick.
Like many draft classes of the past (i.e. 2018, 2020, and even 2023 to an extent), 2024 looks to be the year of the quarterback, with at least five receiving first-round hype at one time or another. However, there are plenty of other QBs who have starter potential. Let’s look at some of the prospects at the most valuable position in football.
Caleb Williams
The story of Caleb Williams has been a wild one, so strap in. Williams was born and raised in Washington, DC, and left high school as a five-star recruit committed to Oklahoma. He joined then-coach Lincoln Riley’s team as the backup behind Spencer Rattler (more on him later). The Sooners kicked off the season 5-0 with Rattler as the starter entering their Red River Showdown with heated rivals Texas. Before this, Williams had played mostly garbage time in blowout victories, like a 76-0 blowout of Western Carolina. Down 28-7 at the end of the first quarter, Riley benched Rattler for Williams, who had only thrown a total of 11 passes up to that point. What happened next literally changed everything.
Coming off the bench, Williams passed for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns, tacking on 88 rushing yards and a third touchdown on the ground. He led Oklahoma to a 55-48 comeback victory after being down by 21. He went on to start the rest of the season, amassing a 5-2 record and winning Oklahoma the Alamo Bowl. Subsequently, USC hired Lincoln Riley as their head coach going into 2022, and several players, chief among them Caleb Williams, joined his project. Williams went on to lead USC to an 11-3 record and appearances in both the Pac-12 title game and the Cotton Bowl. While both ended up losses, Williams still took home the Heisman Trophy, becoming only the eighth player to do so before his junior year (joining, among others, Bryce Young and Lamar Jackson).
Throughout his college career, Williams has showcased elite playmaking ability. He not only has a strong arm, but he is a dangerous dual-threat QB who throws accurate passes that hit receivers in stride. He is constantly trying to facilitate a positive result on every play, a style reminiscent of Patrick Mahomes. But like Mahomes, he sometimes does it to a fault. Williams also has struggled with fumbles, especially when dropping back to pass. Another concern is that his production from 2022 to 2023 has slowed, a trend that is seemingly correlating with USC’s poor form in recent matchups. Otherwise, Williams’ profile looks flawless, and he is projected to be one of the first QBs off the board.
Drake Maye
Notice how I said “one of the first” and not “the first” regarding my Caleb Williams projection. This wording is intentional and can be attributed to two things. One is Williams’s slight regression in play in 2023. The other is Drake Maye.
Maye was born and raised in Charlotte and chose to remain in-state when committing to college, flipping his Alabama commitment to UNC. After redshirting in 2021, Maye took over the starting job for the recently drafted Sam Howell and made good on his opportunities right away. Maye transformed UNC into a force, throwing for 38 touchdowns in his first season as a starter and leading the Tar Heels to the ACC title game, a loss to Clemson.
Maye, like Williams, has fallen off slightly production-wise but has also been consistent amidst change on his team. Under a new offensive coordinator and hence a more run-oriented offense, Maye has not been as much of a focal point as he was under his previous OC. Still, Maye has flashed elite mobility, arm talent, and accuracy. At 6’4”, he is taller than Caleb Williams and more like the prototypical size of the NFL quarterback. However, lacks elite anticipation and is sometimes hesitant, but those traits are easily coachable, which ultimately helps his case to be the first QB off the board.
JJ McCarthy
After sitting for a year behind Cade McNamara, JJ McCarthy of LaGrange Park, Illinois took over as starter early in the 2022 season. After bursting onto the scene, he led the Michigan Wolverines to the Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff, feats that he repeated in 2023. Amidst a run-heavy offense led by Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, who are both projected to go pretty early in 2024, McCarthy has flashed amazing mobility and high-velocity passes over a limited amount of passing plays. Some will say the “sample size” is too small, especially those who try to project his performance in a pass-heavy offense, but he has flashed that ability to perform well in those schemes, especially in this year’s matchups against East Carolina, Michigan State, and Purdue. McCarthy sometimes will force a few throws here or there, but he should be able to start within two years. He will also be 21 during his rookie season should he declare, which could provide a big plus for any team that takes a chance on him.
Quinn Ewers
Hailing from Southlake, Texas, sophomore Quinn Ewers signed for the Ohio State Buckeyes as a five-star recruit and redshirted his first year. However, after getting stuck behind CJ Stroud, Ewers transferred to Texas to get playing time and earned a starting role right away. Since then, amidst a few choppy and messy games, he has showcased very good accuracy and ball placement, gifting his talented receiver corps the best chance to make big plays. He is mobile but often prefers to remain in the pocket, sometimes to a fault. He is the same age as McCarthy and has battled injuries this season, so do not be surprised if he remains in Texas for another year or transfers again to make way for Arch Manning. Still, don’t be surprised if he declares for the NFL Draft and gets drafted in Round 1 as well.
Shedeur Sanders
Having a famous father can be seen as an extra bit of pressure, and when said father is a Hall-of-Famer in your sport, the pressure only increases. However, Shedeur Sanders has used his father as a guide throughout his college career.
Shedeur, the youngest son of Hall-of-Fame defensive back Deion “Primetime” Sanders, attended Trinity Christian High School where he played for his father, who was employed as the team’s offensive coordinator at the time. After Deion was hired at Jackson State, an HBCU in Mississippi’s capital, Shedeur followed him and subsequently became the school’s standout quarterback for two years, leading JSU to two consecutive conference titles. Shedeur and Deion moved to Colorado together (as a bonus, two-way star Travis Hunter would follow them), where they have found success to some degree. A 3-0 start that featured an upset win on the road against TCU was followed by five losses in six games, which included a loss to Stanford in which Colorado blew a 29-point lead. Still, Shedeur has been impressive. He flashes good, quick decision-making, barely ever throwing interceptions and keeping Colorado in games. There has been speculation behind whether or not Shedeur would stay another year and help his father rebuild the Colorado program, but I think he has a great chance of being a Round 1 selection come draft season if he chooses to declare.
Michael Penix Jr.
For every batch of young rookies, there are a bunch of old ones. These specific rookies would be 24 or 25 by the end of their first season in the NFL and often play college football for five or six seasons. The 2024 class is comprised of a few of these players. Namely, Michael Penix Jr.
Penix, a native of Tampa, Florida, committed to Indiana University in 2018. He posted a 12-5 record as a starter for the Hoosiers across three seasons, which may look rocky on paper to some, but any bumps can be largely attributed to a constant string of injuries, which included two torn ACLs. After four seasons in Bloomington, Penix headed west for Washington and has not only remained healthy but has turned the Huskies into a true CFB force.
In 2022, Penix smashed Husky records by passing for over 4,600 yards and 31 touchdowns, leading Washington to a bowl victory and an 11-2 record. In 2023, he furthered Washington’s dominance, marching to a flawless 13-0 record and securing the number two seed in the College Football Playoffs, beating both Oregon and USC in the process. Overall, Penix has played at an amazingly high level for the last two years. He has shown astonishing abilities, such as his accuracy and his quickness in going through his progressions. On film, his touch on his throws looks quite impressive, but Penix does not escape all concerns regarding his play.
First, he will have to adapt to an offense that may not have as many playmakers as the Washington offense he currently facilitates. Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, Giles Jackson, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Dillon Johnson all supply firepower to the offense that Penix can rely on, but he cannot bank on any of them following him to whatever NFL team may pick him off the board. Obviously, the injuries are hard to ignore because there are so many, as well as the fact that Penix will be a 24-year-old rookie, meaning he will have less time to develop before he hits his prime years. However, Penix clearly has a high floor and should be a starter right away, if not by his second season. Teams will certainly covet that high floor profile as Round 1 quality.
Bo Nix
On to the other old guy. He, like Penix, is going to be 24 and will have experience on two college teams of high stature. Introducing Bo Nix.
Nix, born in Arkansas, committed to Auburn after concluding high school in Pinson, Alabama. He started a total of 34 games as a Tiger, winning 21 of them, an ultimately mediocre win percentage. Also mediocre were his statistics: Nix failed to surpass 20 TD passes in a season, and ultimately found himself miserable playing for Auburn in 2021. Shortly after suffering a season-ending injury, he chose to transfer to Oregon.
Nix has been much happier as a Duck, and much more successful. His production across a season and a half at Oregon has been reminiscent of past top NFL prospects. His mobility and ability to throw on the run have been highlighted in this wildly successful Oregon offense. His massive frame is also a big plus. Critics will be concerned with his time at Auburn and his inconsistent deep ball, but Nix nonetheless has a chance for his name, short as it is, to be called early on draft night.
The others
The seven above-mentioned top QB prospects all have a chance to go in the first round if they declare. However, that does not account for the other talent that we have yet to talk about in-depth, who all, despite some flaws, have a solid chance to do the same.
LSU’s Jaylen Daniels has showcased elite speed and production in 2023. A good combine and all-star game showing will most certainly propel him into the first-round conversation.
Spencer Rattler transferred to South Carolina in 2022 and has started there for two years. He possesses good accuracy and a quick release, but his timing needs work.
Cameron Ward dominated the FCS with Incarnate Word before transferring to Washington State. He has become notorious for his ability to extend plays, but his production in the Pac-12 has been relatively lackluster.
Also keep your eyes on Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke, Arkansas’s KJ Jefferson, Duke’s Riley Leonard, Flordia State’s Jordan Travis, Tulane’s Michael Pratt, and Georgia’s Carson Beck. All of them are currently projected as Day 2 or 3 pickups, but combines, all-star games, and pro days could easily change their stock for better or worse.
Overall, the quarterback is always the most hyped position in any draft class, especially if the quantity of high-quality prospects is high. 2024 could very well prove to be one of those years.